Miami leads 4–2 · Last: Miami 10, Texas A&M 3 · 2025
Based on 2025 final ratings. 2026 ratings publish once the season is under way, and this simulation will use them automatically.
Simulator
NEUTRAL FIELD · 2025 ELO MODEL
#7 Miami vs #8 Texas A&M
10,000 sims run
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
Miami
30
Texas A&M
24
TA&M win
37% One-score game
38%
37% One-score game
38%
SIMULATED MARGIN DISTRIBUTION
■ MIA win ■ TA&M win
MIA 42+TA&M 42+
Each game samples a margin around the Elo-implied margin and a final total around a league-typical total.
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) MIA
Neutral site EVEN
Model projection MIA
Miami wins 63% of 10,000 simulations on a neutral field using 2025 final ratings.
TALE OF THE TAPE · 2025 FINAL
2014ELO1872
20.7SP+20.7
22.4FPI18.4
22.2SRS16.6
The same 10,000-run Monte Carlo the game pages run, driven by team Elo. Tap either team name to swap in a new team (top-ranked teams suggest first), the VS badge to flip sides, and the venue chips to grant either side home field (worth about 2.5 points). Every pairing has its own shareable link.
For entertainment only — never betting advice.