They meet for real: Week 10 →Ohio State leads 10–2 · Last: Ohio State 41, Oregon 21 · 2024
Based on 2025 final ratings. 2026 ratings publish once the season is under way, and this simulation will use them automatically.
Simulator
AT OHIO STATE · 2025 ELO MODEL
#2 Oregon vs #1 Ohio State
10,000 sims run
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
Ohio State
30
Oregon
23
OSU win
66% One-score game
38%
66% One-score game
38%
SIMULATED MARGIN DISTRIBUTION
■ ORE win ■ OSU win
ORE 42+OSU 42+
Each game samples a margin around the Elo-implied margin and a final total around a league-typical total.
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) OSU
Home-field edge OSU
Model projection OSU
Ohio State wins 66% of 10,000 simulations at Ohio State using 2025 final ratings.
TALE OF THE TAPE · 2025 FINAL
2138ELO2071
30.1SP+25.9
27.6FPI23.9
26.6SRS22.1
The same 10,000-run Monte Carlo the game pages run, driven by team Elo. Tap either team name to swap in a new team (top-ranked teams suggest first), the VS badge to flip sides, and the venue chips to grant either side home field (worth about 2.5 points). Every pairing has its own shareable link.
For entertainment only — never betting advice.