They meet for real: Week 10 →Ohio State leads 10–2 · Last: Ohio State 41, Oregon 21 · 2024
Based on 2025 final ratings. 2026 ratings publish once the season is under way, and this simulation will use them automatically.
Simulator
AT OREGON · 2025 ELO MODEL
#1 Ohio State vs #2 Oregon
10,000 sims run
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
Oregon
27
Ohio State
26
ORE win
54% One-score game
41%
54% One-score game
41%
SIMULATED MARGIN DISTRIBUTION
■ OSU win ■ ORE win
OSU 42+ORE 42+
Each game samples a margin around the Elo-implied margin and a final total around a league-typical total.
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) OSU
Home-field edge ORE
Model projection ORE
Oregon wins 54% of 10,000 simulations at Oregon using 2025 final ratings.
TALE OF THE TAPE · 2025 FINAL
2071ELO2138
25.9SP+30.1
23.9FPI27.6
22.1SRS26.6
The same 10,000-run Monte Carlo the game pages run, driven by team Elo. Tap either team name to swap in a new team (top-ranked teams suggest first), the VS badge to flip sides, and the venue chips to grant either side home field (worth about 2.5 points). Every pairing has its own shareable link.
For entertainment only — never betting advice.