Arkansas State @ Southern Miss, Week 7 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 7 · TBDUSM radioSouthern Miss Radio Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Southern Miss a 37% chance.
SeriesSouthern Miss leads 9–3 · Southern Miss won the last meeting, 27–21 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) ARST
Home-field edge USM
Model projection ARST
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Arkansas State @ Southern Miss
Your sims:Sims: USM 0, ARST 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Southern Miss
Southern Miss2025: 7–6 (5–3 SBC)
Lvs Western Kentucky27–16Lvs Troy28–18Lat South Alabama42–35Southern Miss2025: 7–6 (5–3 SBC)Arkansas State
Arkansas State2025: 7–6 (5–3 SBC)
Wvs Missouri State34–28Wat App State30–29Lvs Louisiana34–30Arkansas State2025: 7–6 (5–3 SBC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Southern Miss vs Arkansas State Stats ComparisonUSM vs ARST Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Southern MissUSM | Arkansas StateARST | |
|---|---|---|
| 28.8#58 | PPG | 25.2#87 |
| 27.4#84 | PA/G | 27.4#84 |
| 401.8#54 | YDS/G | 383.3#74 |
| 266#26 | PASS/G | 259.8#32 |
| 135.8#93 | RUSH/G | 123.5#108 |
| 5.7#65 | YDS/PLAY | 5.2#104 |
| 39.7%#70 | 3RD DOWN | 39.3%#74 |
| 0.16#71 | OFF PPA | 0.09#110 |
| 0.12#54 | DEF PPA | 0.19#97 |
| 39.5%#107 | OFF SUCCESS | 41.9%#75 |
| 41.5%#68 | DEF SUCCESS | 43.6%#97 |
| 90.2% | RET PROD | 30.0% |
| 1.33#25 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.15#121 |
| +14#4 | TO MARGIN | −7#112 |
| -20.7 | SP+ | -11.6 |
| -5.1#87 | FPI | -9.2#107 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
M. M. Roberts StadiumLocationHattiesburg, MS
Capacity36,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1932
Elevation212 ft
FAN NEWS
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