Houston @ Texas Tech, Week 3 · 2026
@#12
GAME DAY
Week 3 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Texas Tech opens a 13.5-point favorite. Our model gives Texas Tech a 80% chance.
SeriesHouston leads 18–17–1 · Texas Tech won the last meeting, 35–11 · 2025
80% One-score game
29% Cover TTU −13.5
50%
What's driving the model
Your sims:Sims: TTU 0, HOU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
Texas Tech81%
Houston20%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $9,731 traded · as of Sep 1, 11:06 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Texas Tech vs Houston Stats ComparisonTexas Tech vs Houston Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Texas TechTTU | HoustonHOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 39.4#7 | PPG | 29.1#55 |
| 11.8#3 | PA/G | 22.8#47 |
| 461.6#10 | YDS/G | 395#62 |
| 277.6#17 | PASS/G | 216.4#83 |
| 184#31 | RUSH/G | 178.6#40 |
| 6.3#24 | YDS/PLAY | 5.6#74 |
| 49.3%#12 | 3RD DOWN | 40.8%#56 |
| +14#4 | TO MARGIN | +4#43 |
| 0.25#23 | OFF PPA | 0.11#101 |
| 43.7%#50 | OFF SUCCESS | 41.5%#79 |
| 31.5%#3 | DEF SUCCESS | 41.2%#62 |
| 53.4% | RET PROD | 81.2% |
| 1.32#30 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.22#78 |
| 21.8 | SP+ | 7.4 |
| 20.0#10 | FPI | 7.1#35 |
| -0.07#2 | DEF PPA | 0.11#47 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
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