Iowa State @ Iowa, Week 2 · 2026
@#22
GAME DAY
Week 2 · ·Iowa StateISU0–0·B12
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Iowa State opens a 11.5-point underdog. Our model gives Iowa State a 23% chance.
SeriesIowa leads 47–23 · Iowa State won the last meeting, 16–13 · 2025
What's driving the model
Home-field edge IOWA
Market lean IOWA
Model projection IOWA
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Iowa State @ Iowa
Your sims:Sims: ISU 0, IOWA 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADISU +11.5IOWA −11.5
TOTALOver 41.5Under 41.5
MONEYLINEISU +550IOWA −800
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Iowa State vs Iowa Stats ComparisonIowa State vs Iowa Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Iowa StateISU | IowaIOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| 27.4#70 | PPG | 29.3#54 |
| 20.2#26 | PA/G | 16.1#8 |
| 395.6#60 | YDS/G | 320.1#119 |
| 221.4#73 | PASS/G | 143.2#129 |
| 174.2#51 | RUSH/G | 176.9#43 |
| 5.8#55 | YDS/PLAY | 5.3#97 |
| 39.9%#69 | 3RD DOWN | 43.5%#34 |
| +4#43 | TO MARGIN | +1#66 |
| 0.19#52 | OFF PPA | 0.15#80 |
| 0.09#35 | DEF PPA | 0.06#18 |
| 45.0%#38 | OFF SUCCESS | 44.1%#45 |
| 39.1%#42 | DEF SUCCESS | 38.6%#35 |
| 1.7% | RET PROD | 34.2% |
| 1.21#89 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.10#134 |
| -0.4 | SP+ | 14.6 |
| -0.9#72 | FPI | 10.6#25 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Kinnick StadiumLocationIowa City, IA
Capacity69,250
SurfaceTurf
Opened1929
Elevation724 ft
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