Lindenwood @ Missouri State, Week 2 · 2026
GAME DAY
Week 2 · ·Terms & eligibility
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Missouri State opens a 19.5-point favorite. Our model gives Missouri State a 89% chance.
SeriesMissouri State leads 1–0 · Missouri State won the last meeting, 28–14 · 2024
What's driving the model
Your sims:Sims: MOST 0, LIN 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $1,508 traded · as of Sep 9, 7:34 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →DraftKings · updated Sep 9, 3:01 PM ETNot gambling advice
Lindenwood vs Missouri State Stats ComparisonLindenwood vs MOST Stats Comparison
| LindenwoodLIN | Missouri StateMOST | |
|---|---|---|
| 26.5 | PA/G | 50 |
| 338 | YDS/G | 67 |
| 175.5 | PASS/G | 30 |
| 162.5 | RUSH/G | 37 |
| 5.1 | YDS/PLAY | 1.7 |
| 48.4% | 3RD DOWN | 10.0% |
| 0.12 | DEF PPA | 0.35 |
| 34.3% | OFF SUCCESS | 17.1% |
| 44.6% | DEF SUCCESS | 58.4% |
| 1.31 | EXPLOSIVE | 0.93 |
| 26 | PPG | 0 |
| +2 | TO MARGIN | −2 |
| 0.13 | OFF PPA | -0.24 |
| – | RET PROD | 31.3% |
| – | ELO | 1284 |
| – | SP+ | -24.3 |
| – | FPI | -15.9#127 |
THE VENUE
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