GAME DAY
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Dayton a 75% chance.
SeriesDayton leads 12–7 · Dayton won the last meeting, 35–28 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SRS) DAY
Home-field edge DAY
Model projection DAY
Each game samples a margin around our projection from last season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Morehead State @ Dayton
Your sims:Sims: DAY 0, MORE 0
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Morehead State vs Dayton Stats ComparisonMORE vs Dayton Stats Comparison
2026 stats| Morehead StateMORE | DaytonDAY | |
|---|---|---|
| 57.5 | PPG | 43 |
| 33 | PA/G | 20 |
| 302 | YDS/G | 437 |
| 203 | PASS/G | 186 |
| 99 | RUSH/G | 251 |
| 9.2 | YDS/PLAY | 6.2 |
| 69.2% | 3RD DOWN | 27.3% |
| +2 | TO MARGIN | +3 |
| 0.57 | OFF PPA | 0.17 |
| 0.08 | DEF PPA | 0.10 |
| 52.2% | OFF SUCCESS | 38.9% |
| 37.3% | DEF SUCCESS | 35.8% |
| 1.77 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.31 |
2026 season stats and 2025 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Welcome StadiumLocationDayton, OH
Capacity11,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1949
Elevation730 ft
FAN NEWS
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