Navy @ Air Force, Week 5 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 5 · ·Air ForceAF0–0·MWC
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Navy a 51% chance.
SeriesAir Force leads 34–24 · Navy won the last meeting, 34–31 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) NAVY
Home-field edge AF
Model projection NAVY
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Navy @ Air Force
Your sims:Sims: NAVY 0, AF 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Navy vs Air Force Stats ComparisonNavy vs Air Force Stats Comparison
2025 stats| NavyNAVY | Air ForceAF | |
|---|---|---|
| 31.5#30 | PPG | 29.8#48 |
| 25#69 | PA/G | 30.3#109 |
| 416.1#33 | YDS/G | 406.7#46 |
| 130#133 | PASS/G | 145.2#128 |
| 286.1#1 | RUSH/G | 261.5#3 |
| 6.6#18 | YDS/PLAY | 6#38 |
| 51.8%#4 | 3RD DOWN | 51.0%#7 |
| 0.30#15 | OFF PPA | 0.29#20 |
| 0.21#110 | DEF PPA | 0.40#136 |
| 49.0%#8 | OFF SUCCESS | 47.6%#14 |
| 40.4%#54 | DEF SUCCESS | 49.4%#134 |
| 13.8% | RET PROD | 57.4% |
| 1.24#64 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.20#98 |
| +1#66 | TO MARGIN | −2#81 |
| 1.2 | SP+ | -3.2 |
| -0.7#69 | FPI | -6.8#93 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Falcon StadiumLocationColorado Springs, CO
Capacity46,692
SurfaceTurf
Opened1962
Elevation6,643 ft
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