North Carolina @ Duke, Week 7 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 7 · TBDDUKE radioDuke Radio Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Duke opens a 4.5-point favorite. Our model gives Duke a 62% chance.
SeriesNorth Carolina leads 63–38–4 · Duke won the last meeting, 32–25 · 2025
What's driving the model
Home-field edge DUKE
Market lean DUKE
Model projection DUKE
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
North Carolina @ Duke
Your sims:Sims: DUKE 0, UNC 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3North Carolina
North Carolina2026: 1–0 (0–0 ACC)
Wvs TCU15–10North Carolina2026: 1–0 (0–0 ACC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADDUKE −4.5UNC +4.5
TOTALOver 54.5Under 54.5
MONEYLINEDUKE −225UNC +185
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Duke vs North Carolina Stats ComparisonDuke vs UNC Stats Comparison
2025 stats| DukeDUKE | North CarolinaUNC | |
|---|---|---|
| 34.6#16 | PPG | 19.2#120 |
| 29.4#98 | PA/G | 24.5#65 |
| 423.6#25 | YDS/G | 289.1#131 |
| 285.4#11 | PASS/G | 183.9#111 |
| 138.2#88 | RUSH/G | 105.2#123 |
| 6.2#27 | YDS/PLAY | 4.9#120 |
| 39.0%#77 | 3RD DOWN | 36.9%#94 |
| 0.24#24 | OFF PPA | 0.06#122 |
| 0.22#113 | DEF PPA | 0.15#64 |
| 45.8%#29 | OFF SUCCESS | 38.8%#112 |
| 43.5%#96 | DEF SUCCESS | 41.4%#66 |
| 17.1% | RET PROD | 27.8% |
| 1.33#26 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.16#116 |
| 5.6 | SP+ | 3.5 |
| 3.5#52 | FPI | 4.9#42 |
| +10#11 | TO MARGIN | −3#86 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Wallace Wade StadiumLocationDurham, NC
Capacity40,004
SurfaceGrass
Opened1929
Elevation338 ft
FAN NEWS
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