Oklahoma @ Michigan, Week 2 · 2026
#10
@#16
@#16GAME DAY
Week 2 · ·OklahomaOU0–0·SEC
MichiganMICH0–0·B1G
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Oklahoma opens a 1.5-point underdog. Our model gives Oklahoma a 51% chance.
SeriesOklahoma leads 2–0 · Oklahoma won the last meeting, 24–13 · 2025
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
OU win
51% One-score game
41% Cover MICH −1.5
44%
51% One-score game
41% Cover MICH −1.5
44%
What's driving the model
Home-field edge MICH
Market lean MICH
Model projection OU
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
Oklahoma @ Michigan
Your sims:Sims: OU 0, MICH 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelOU 51%MarketOU 51%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $88,313 traded · as of Sep 1, 9:36 PM ETInformation only
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADOU +1.5MICH −1.5
TOTALOver 46.5Under 46.5
MONEYLINEOU −108MICH −112
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Oklahoma vs Michigan Stats ComparisonOklahoma vs Michigan Stats Comparison
2025 stats| OklahomaOU | MichiganMICH | |
|---|---|---|
| 26.2#79 | PPG | 27.5#69 |
| 15.5#7 | PA/G | 20.4#29 |
| 354.5#93 | YDS/G | 397.9#58 |
| 235.8#59 | PASS/G | 186.8#107 |
| 118.7#113 | RUSH/G | 211.2#14 |
| 5.3#97 | YDS/PLAY | 6.2#27 |
| 38.6%#83 | 3RD DOWN | 43.6%#32 |
| 0.11#100 | OFF PPA | 0.20#47 |
| 40.4%#95 | OFF SUCCESS | 45.5%#32 |
| 30.7%#2 | DEF SUCCESS | 41.8%#70 |
| 63.2% | RET PROD | 69.2% |
| 1.24#64 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.14#129 |
| 18.8 | SP+ | 17.0 |
| 17.8#12 | FPI | 15.9#15 |
| −3#86 | TO MARGIN | +2#54 |
| -0.02#4 | DEF PPA | 0.11#52 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Michigan StadiumLocationAnn Arbor, MI
Capacity107,601
SurfaceTurf
Opened1927
Elevation838 ft
FAN NEWS
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