Penn State @ Northwestern, Week 5 · 2026
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@GAME DAY
Week 5 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Northwestern a 34% chance.
SeriesPenn State leads 16–6 · Northwestern won the last meeting, 22–21 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) PSU
Home-field edge NU
Model projection PSU
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Penn State @ Northwestern
Your sims:Sims: NU 0, PSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Northwestern
Northwestern2025: 7–6 (4–5 B1G)
Wvs Central Michigan34–7Lat Illinois20–13Wvs Minnesota38–35Northwestern2025: 7–6 (4–5 B1G)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Northwestern vs Penn State Stats ComparisonNorthwestern vs Penn State Stats Comparison
2025 stats| NorthwesternNU | Penn StatePSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 23.4#98 | PPG | 31#34 |
| 19.8#23 | PA/G | 20.5#30 |
| 346.8#98 | YDS/G | 362#86 |
| 185.9#108 | PASS/G | 187.6#105 |
| 160.9#64 | RUSH/G | 174.4#50 |
| 5.5#81 | YDS/PLAY | 5.8#55 |
| 42.9%#37 | 3RD DOWN | 43.6%#32 |
| 0.15#84 | OFF PPA | 0.23#30 |
| 0.17#80 | DEF PPA | 0.10#45 |
| 43.0%#60 | OFF SUCCESS | 46.2%#25 |
| 45.1%#123 | DEF SUCCESS | 40.9%#59 |
| 88.5% | RET PROD | 7.6% |
| 1.17#110 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.20#101 |
| 5.1 | SP+ | 16.2 |
| 1.4#60 | FPI | 13.7#17 |
| −1#77 | TO MARGIN | +3#46 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Ryan FieldLocationEvanston, IL
Capacity35,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened2026
Elevation595 ft
FAN NEWS
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MORE WEEK 5 GAMES
TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
