Sacramento State @ Fresno State, Week 2 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 2 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Fresno State a 94% chance.
SeriesFresno State leads 5–0 · Fresno State won the last meeting, 46–30 · 2024
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) FRES
Home-field edge FRES
Model projection FRES
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Sacramento State @ Fresno State
Your sims:Sims: FRES 0, SAC 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Sacramento State
Sacramento State2026: 0–1 (0–1 MAC)
Lat Eastern Michigan28–17Sacramento State2026: 0–1 (0–1 MAC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Fresno State vs Sacramento State Stats ComparisonFresno State vs SAC Stats Comparison
| Fresno StateFRES | Sacramento StateSAC | |
|---|---|---|
| – | PPG | 17 |
| – | PA/G | 28 |
| – | YDS/G | 268 |
| – | PASS/G | 219 |
| – | RUSH/G | 49 |
| – | YDS/PLAY | 4.3 |
| – | 3RD DOWN | 21.4% |
| – | TO MARGIN | −1 |
| – | OFF PPA | -0.08 |
| – | DEF PPA | 0.06 |
| – | OFF SUCCESS | 34.4% |
| – | DEF SUCCESS | 41.4% |
| 38.3% | RET PROD | – |
| – | EXPLOSIVE | 1.03 |
| -1.4 | SP+ | -23.4 |
| -2.5#77 | FPI | -10.4#111 |
THE VENUE
Valley Children's StadiumLocationFresno, CA
Capacity41,031
SurfaceTurf
Opened1980
Elevation336 ft
FAN NEWS
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