UCF @ Houston, Week 5 · 2026
@#23
GAME DAY
Week 5 · TBDHoustonHOU0–0·B12
UCF radioKnights Radio Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives UCF a 28% chance.
SeriesUCF leads 8–4 · Houston won the last meeting, 30–27 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) HOU
Home-field edge HOU
Model projection HOU
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
UCF @ Houston
Your sims:Sims: UCF 0, HOU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
UCF vs Houston Stats ComparisonUCF vs Houston Stats Comparison
2025 stats| UCFUCF | HoustonHOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 24.3#90 | PPG | 29.1#55 |
| 23.6#56 | PA/G | 22.8#47 |
| 378.9#76 | YDS/G | 395#62 |
| 220.8#75 | PASS/G | 216.4#83 |
| 158.2#67 | RUSH/G | 178.6#40 |
| 5.8#55 | YDS/PLAY | 5.6#74 |
| 33.9%#117 | 3RD DOWN | 40.8%#56 |
| 0.15#83 | OFF PPA | 0.11#101 |
| 0.11#52 | DEF PPA | 0.11#47 |
| 39.9%#100 | OFF SUCCESS | 41.5%#79 |
| 42.3%#80 | DEF SUCCESS | 41.2%#62 |
| 24.8% | RET PROD | 81.2% |
| 1.37#11 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.22#78 |
| 1.7 | SP+ | 7.4 |
| 2.1#57 | FPI | 7.1#35 |
| −4#98 | TO MARGIN | +4#43 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
TDECU StadiumLocationHouston, TX
Capacity40,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened2014
Elevation31 ft
FAN NEWS
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