UNLV @ North Texas, Week 2 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 2 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives UNLV a 76% chance.
SeriesUNLV leads 5–1 · UNLV won the last meeting, 58–27 · 2022
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) UNLV
Home-field edge UNT
Model projection UNLV
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
UNLV @ North Texas
Your sims:Sims: UNLV 0, UNT 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3UNLV
UNLV2026: 0–1 (0–0 MWC)
Lvs Memphis27–21UNLV2026: 0–1 (0–0 MWC)Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
- UNLV57%
North Texas46%
CFB Vibes ModelUNLV 76%MarketUNLV 57%
Market 19 points lower than our model
Kalshi · $88 traded · as of Sep 1, 9:36 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
UNLV vs North Texas Stats ComparisonUNLV vs North Texas Stats Comparison
2025 stats| UNLVUNLV | North TexasUNT | |
|---|---|---|
| 34.1#17 | PPG | 45.1#1 |
| 28#89 | PA/G | 26.5#76 |
| 446.8#21 | YDS/G | 511.4#1 |
| 250.9#42 | PASS/G | 317.3#2 |
| 195.9#23 | RUSH/G | 194.1#25 |
| 6.8#11 | YDS/PLAY | 7.2#3 |
| 45.2%#28 | 3RD DOWN | 45.9%#24 |
| +7#21 | TO MARGIN | +9#14 |
| 0.30#17 | OFF PPA | 0.35#2 |
| 0.21#111 | DEF PPA | 0.16#74 |
| 46.6%#23 | OFF SUCCESS | 51.6%#2 |
| 44.1%#104 | DEF SUCCESS | 42.0%#77 |
| 15.4% | RET PROD | 2.5% |
| 1.36#14 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.31#33 |
| 3.6 | SP+ | -11.6 |
| 1.8#58 | FPI | -6.4#90 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
DATCU StadiumLocationDenton, TX
Capacity30,850
SurfaceTurf
Opened2011
Elevation652 ft
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