Valparaiso @ Morehead State, Week 5 · 2026
GAME DAY
Week 5 · ·StreamingESPN+
MORE radioEagle Sports Network
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Morehead State a 69% chance.
SeriesMorehead State leads 18–3 · Morehead State won the last meeting, 17–13 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SRS) MORE
Home-field edge MORE
Model projection MORE
Each game samples a margin around our projection from last season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Valparaiso @ Morehead State
Your sims:Sims: MORE 0, VAL 0
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Morehead State vs Valparaiso Stats ComparisonMORE vs Valparaiso Stats Comparison
2026 stats| Morehead StateMORE | ValparaisoVAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 57.5 | PPG | – |
| 33 | PA/G | – |
| 302 | YDS/G | – |
| 203 | PASS/G | – |
| 99 | RUSH/G | – |
| 9.2 | YDS/PLAY | – |
| 69.2% | 3RD DOWN | – |
| +2 | TO MARGIN | – |
| 0.57 | OFF PPA | – |
| 0.08 | DEF PPA | – |
| 52.2% | OFF SUCCESS | – |
| 37.3% | DEF SUCCESS | – |
| 1.77 | EXPLOSIVE | – |
2026 season stats and 2025 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Jayne StadiumLocationMorehead, KY
Capacity10,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1964
Elevation748 ft
FAN NEWS
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