Texas leads 3–0 · Last: Texas 35, Indiana 0 · 1966
Based on 2025 final ratings. 2026 ratings publish once the season is under way, and this simulation will use them automatically.
Simulator
AT TEXAS · 2025 ELO MODEL
#6 Indiana vs #5 Texas
10,000 sims run
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
Indiana
33
Texas
20
TEX win
21% One-score game
31%
21% One-score game
31%
SIMULATED MARGIN DISTRIBUTION
■ IU win ■ TEX win
IU 42+TEX 42+
Each game samples a margin around the Elo-implied margin and a final total around a league-typical total.
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) IU
Home-field edge TEX
Model projection IU
Indiana wins 79% of 10,000 simulations at Texas using 2025 final ratings.
TALE OF THE TAPE · 2025 FINAL
2346ELO1926
32.4SP+16.2
31.5FPI18.6
27.3SRS12.6
The same 10,000-run Monte Carlo the game pages run, driven by team Elo. Tap either team name to swap in a new team (top-ranked teams suggest first), the VS badge to flip sides, and the venue chips to grant either side home field (worth about 2.5 points). Every pairing has its own shareable link.
For entertainment only — never betting advice.