Texas leads 3–0 · Last: Texas 35, Indiana 0 · 1966
Based on 2025 final ratings. 2026 ratings publish once the season is under way, and this simulation will use them automatically.
Simulator
AT INDIANA · 2025 ELO MODEL
#5 Texas vs #6 Indiana
10,000 sims run
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
Indiana
37
Texas
16
IU win
90% One-score game
19%
90% One-score game
19%
SIMULATED MARGIN DISTRIBUTION
■ TEX win ■ IU win
TEX 42+IU 42+
Each game samples a margin around the Elo-implied margin and a final total around a league-typical total.
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) IU
Home-field edge IU
Model projection IU
Indiana wins 90% of 10,000 simulations at Indiana using 2025 final ratings.
TALE OF THE TAPE · 2025 FINAL
1926ELO2346
16.2SP+32.4
18.6FPI31.5
12.6SRS27.3
The same 10,000-run Monte Carlo the game pages run, driven by team Elo. Tap either team name to swap in a new team (top-ranked teams suggest first), the VS badge to flip sides, and the venue chips to grant either side home field (worth about 2.5 points). Every pairing has its own shareable link.
For entertainment only — never betting advice.