Texas leads 3–0 · Last: Texas 35, Indiana 0 · 1966
Based on 2025 final ratings. 2026 ratings publish once the season is under way, and this simulation will use them automatically.
Simulator
NEUTRAL FIELD · 2025 ELO MODEL
#5 Texas vs #6 Indiana
10,000 sims run
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
Indiana
35
Texas
18
IU win
85% One-score game
25%
85% One-score game
25%
SIMULATED MARGIN DISTRIBUTION
■ TEX win ■ IU win
TEX 42+IU 42+
Each game samples a margin around the Elo-implied margin and a final total around a league-typical total.
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) IU
Neutral site EVEN
Model projection IU
Indiana wins 85% of 10,000 simulations on a neutral field using 2025 final ratings.
TALE OF THE TAPE · 2025 FINAL
1926ELO2346
16.2SP+32.4
18.6FPI31.5
12.6SRS27.3
The same 10,000-run Monte Carlo the game pages run, driven by team Elo. Tap either team name to swap in a new team (top-ranked teams suggest first), the VS badge to flip sides, and the venue chips to grant either side home field (worth about 2.5 points). Every pairing has its own shareable link.
For entertainment only — never betting advice.