Fresno State @ San José State, Week 3 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 3 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Fresno State a 73% chance.
SeriesFresno State leads 39–31 · Fresno State won the last meeting, 41–14 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) FRES
Home-field edge SJSU
Model projection FRES
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Fresno State @ San José State
Your sims:Sims: FRES 0, SJSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3San José State
San José State2026: 0–1 (0–0 MWC)
Lat USC42–26San José State2026: 0–1 (0–0 MWC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Fresno State vs San José State Stats ComparisonFresno State vs SJSU Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Fresno StateFRES | San José StateSJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 25.8#81 | PPG | 21.4#113 |
| 18.8#16 | PA/G | 32.5#121 |
| 354.1#94 | YDS/G | 403.2#50 |
| 183.4#112 | PASS/G | 283.2#13 |
| 170.7#54 | RUSH/G | 120.1#111 |
| 5.4#92 | YDS/PLAY | 6#38 |
| 36.4%#100 | 3RD DOWN | 42.6%#39 |
| 0.10#103 | OFF PPA | 0.17#64 |
| 0.08#31 | DEF PPA | 0.20#105 |
| 39.7%#105 | OFF SUCCESS | 43.2%#57 |
| 38.1%#31 | DEF SUCCESS | 42.4%#83 |
| 38.3% | RET PROD | 3.8% |
| 1.21#87 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.25#62 |
| +5#35 | TO MARGIN | −13#133 |
| -1.4 | SP+ | -15.7 |
| -2.5#77 | FPI | -14.3#124 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
CEFCU StadiumLocationSan Jose, CA
Capacity30,456
SurfaceTurf
Opened1933
Elevation93 ft
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