Gardner-Webb @ Liberty, Week 2 · 2026
GAME DAY
Week 2 · ·StreamingESPN+
GWEB radioGardner-Webb Radio Network
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Gardner-Webb opens a 26.5-point underdog. Our model gives Gardner-Webb a 3% chance.
SeriesLiberty leads 10–4 · Liberty won the last meeting, 21–20 · 2022
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
GWEB win
3% One-score game
8% Cover LIB −26.5
59%
3% One-score game
8% Cover LIB −26.5
59%
What's driving the model
Home-field edge LIB
Market lean LIB
Model projection LIB
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
Gardner-Webb @ Liberty
Your sims:Sims: GWEB 0, LIB 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Liberty
Lat James Madison20–13
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelLIB 97%MarketLIB 96%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $3,741 traded · as of Sep 9, 9:49 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADGWEB +26.5LIB −26.5
TOTALOver 55.5Under 55.5
MONEYLINEGWEB +1600LIB −4000
DraftKings · updated Sep 9, 9:06 PM ETNot gambling advice
Gardner-Webb vs Liberty Stats ComparisonGardner-Webb vs Liberty Stats Comparison
| Gardner-WebbGWEB | LibertyLIB | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | PPG | 13 |
| 26 | PA/G | 20 |
| 391 | YDS/G | 321 |
| 345 | PASS/G | 230 |
| 46 | RUSH/G | 91 |
| 5.2 | YDS/PLAY | 4.9 |
| 34.5% | 3RD DOWN | 43.8% |
| 0.07 | OFF PPA | 0.03 |
| 0.12 | DEF PPA | 0.28 |
| 39.6% | OFF SUCCESS | 37.7% |
| 36.0% | DEF SUCCESS | 38.0% |
| 1.12 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.18 |
| −1 | TO MARGIN | +0 |
| – | RET PROD | 38.3% |
| – | ELO | 1697 |
| – | SP+ | -7.2 |
| – | FPI | -7.6#101 |
THE VENUE
Williams Stadium (VA)LocationLynchburg, VA
Capacity25,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1989
Elevation895 ft
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