Murray State @ North Dakota, Week 5 · 2026
GAME DAY
Week 5 · ·StreamingESPN+
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives North Dakota a 91% chance.
SeriesNorth Dakota leads 3–0 · North Dakota won the last meeting, 35–17 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SRS) UND
Home-field edge UND
Model projection UND
Each game samples a margin around our projection from last season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Murray State @ North Dakota
Your sims:Sims: UND 0, MUR 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
North Dakota vs Murray State Stats ComparisonNorth Dakota vs Murray State Stats Comparison
2026 stats| North DakotaUND | Murray StateMUR | |
|---|---|---|
| 52 | PPG | 14 |
| 23.5 | PA/G | 33 |
| 496.5 | YDS/G | 305 |
| 265 | PASS/G | 201 |
| 231.5 | RUSH/G | 104 |
| 6.8 | YDS/PLAY | 5.3 |
| 60.0% | 3RD DOWN | 32.0% |
| 0.33 | OFF PPA | 0.07 |
| 55.0% | OFF SUCCESS | 40.5% |
| 32.5% | DEF SUCCESS | 44.8% |
| 1.11 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.20 |
| −1 | TO MARGIN | −3 |
| -0.01 | DEF PPA | 0.32 |
2026 season stats and 2025 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Alerus CenterLocationGrand Forks, ND
Capacity12,283
SurfaceTurf
Opened2001
Elevation837 ft
FAN NEWS
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