North Dakota State @ Sacramento State, Week 3 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 3 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsWIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
SAC win
15% One-score game
23%
15% One-score game
23%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) NDSU
Home-field edge SAC
Model projection NDSU
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
North Dakota St @ Sacramento St
Your sims:Sims: SAC 0, NDSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Sacramento State
Sacramento State2026: 0–1 (0–1 MAC)
Lat Eastern Michigan28–17Sacramento State2026: 0–1 (0–1 MAC)North Dakota State
North Dakota State2026: 1–0 (0–0 MWC)
Wvs Jacksonville State33–7North Dakota State2026: 1–0 (0–0 MWC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Sacramento State vs North Dakota State Stats ComparisonSAC vs NDSU Stats Comparison
| Sacramento StateSAC | North Dakota StateNDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | PPG | 33 |
| 28 | PA/G | 7 |
| 268 | YDS/G | 373 |
| 219 | PASS/G | 164 |
| 49 | RUSH/G | 209 |
| 4.3 | YDS/PLAY | 5.6 |
| 21.4% | 3RD DOWN | 35.7% |
| 34.4% | OFF SUCCESS | 42.0% |
| 41.4% | DEF SUCCESS | 30.9% |
| 1.03 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.10 |
| −1 | TO MARGIN | +1 |
| -0.08 | OFF PPA | 0.22 |
| 0.06 | DEF PPA | -0.32 |
| -23.4 | SP+ | -1.8 |
| -10.4#111 | FPI | -8.3#100 |
THE VENUE
Hornet StadiumLocationSacramento, CA
Capacity21,195
SurfaceTurf
Opened1969
Elevation40 ft
FAN NEWS
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