Northern Arizona @ Idaho State, Week 5 · 2026
GAME DAY
Week 5 · ·StreamingESPN+
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Northern Arizona a 34% chance.
SeriesNorthern Arizona leads 13–2 · Northern Arizona won the last meeting, 31–18 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SRS) IDST
Home-field edge IDST
Model projection IDST
Each game samples a margin around our projection from last season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Northern Arizona @ Idaho State
Your sims:Sims: NAU 0, IDST 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Northern Arizona vs Idaho State Stats ComparisonNAU vs Idaho State Stats Comparison
2026 stats| Northern ArizonaNAU | Idaho StateIDST | |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 | PPG | 33.5 |
| 31 | PA/G | 13.5 |
| 279 | YDS/G | 347.5 |
| 182 | PASS/G | 259 |
| 97 | RUSH/G | 88.5 |
| 4.7 | YDS/PLAY | 5.5 |
| 29.6% | 3RD DOWN | 29.6% |
| +3 | TO MARGIN | +3 |
| 33.3% | OFF SUCCESS | 40.8% |
| 52.3% | DEF SUCCESS | 34.6% |
| 1.13 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.18 |
| -0.01 | OFF PPA | 0.12 |
| 0.21 | DEF PPA | -0.02 |
2026 season stats and 2025 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Holt ArenaLocationPocatello, ID
Capacity12,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1970
Elevation4,561 ft
FAN NEWS
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