GAME DAY
Week 12 · · Watch College Football live with Fubo for $0 TodayWatch free on ▸ (opens in a new tab)
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Northern Iowa an 82% chance.
SeriesNorthern Iowa leads 1–0 since 2025 · Northern Iowa won the last meeting, 31–14 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SRS) UNI
Home-field edge MUR
Model projection UNI
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Northern Iowa @ Murray State
Your sims:Sims: MUR 0, UNI 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Northern Iowa
Lat Southern Illinois20–17Lat Youngstown State35–22Wvs North Dakota24–17
Murray State
Lat South Dakota State42–9Lvs South Dakota48–20Lat North Dakota55–28
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Northern Iowa vs Murray State Stats ComparisonUNI vs Murray State Stats Comparison
| Northern IowaUNI | Murray StateMUR | |
|---|---|---|
| 24.4 | PPG | 14.8 |
| 28 | PA/G | 41.8 |
| 319.1 | YDS/G | 276.8 |
| 212.4 | PASS/G | 161.5 |
| 106.7 | RUSH/G | 115.2 |
| 5 | YDS/PLAY | 4.7 |
| 37.4% | 3RD DOWN | 30.3% |
| 0.08 | DEF PPA | 0.26 |
| 39.4% | OFF SUCCESS | 36.6% |
| 48.0% | DEF SUCCESS | 50.3% |
| 1.24 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.13 |
| +6 | TO MARGIN | −5 |
| 0.05 | OFF PPA | -0.07 |
| -25.1 | SRS | -44.7 |
THE VENUE
Roy Stewart StadiumLocationMurray, KY
Capacity16,800
SurfaceTurf
Opened1973
Elevation501 ft
FAN NEWS
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