Northwestern State @ Stephen F. Austin, Week 12 · 2026
GAME DAY
Week 12 · ·StreamingESPN+
NWST radioDemon Sports Network
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Northwestern State a 5% chance.
SeriesStephen F. Austin leads 12–7 · Stephen F. Austin won the last meeting, 62–14 · 2025
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
NWST win
5% One-score game
11%
5% One-score game
11%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SRS) SFA
Home-field edge SFA
Model projection SFA
Each game samples a margin around our projection from last season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Northwestern St @ Stephen F. Austin
Your sims:Sims: NWST 0, SFA 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Northwestern State vs Stephen F. Austin Stats ComparisonNWST vs SFA Stats Comparison
2026 stats| Northwestern StateNWST | Stephen F. AustinSFA | |
|---|---|---|
| 21.5 | PPG | 41 |
| 61 | PA/G | 17 |
| 327 | YDS/G | 436.5 |
| 192 | PASS/G | 240 |
| 135 | RUSH/G | 196.5 |
| 4.7 | YDS/PLAY | 6 |
| 31.2% | 3RD DOWN | 44.8% |
| 0.38 | DEF PPA | 0.16 |
| 31.9% | OFF SUCCESS | 44.5% |
| 43.0% | DEF SUCCESS | 39.1% |
| 1.22 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.16 |
| −3 | TO MARGIN | +3 |
| -0.04 | OFF PPA | 0.17 |
2026 season stats and 2025 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Homer Bryce StadiumLocationNacogdoches, TX
Capacity14,575
SurfaceTurf
Opened1973
Elevation295 ft
FAN NEWS
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