Oklahoma @ Michigan, Week 2 · 2026
#10
@#16
@#16GAME DAY
Week 2 · ·OklahomaOU0–0·SEC
MichiganMICH0–0·B1G
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Michigan opens a 1.5-point favorite. Our model gives Michigan a 49% chance.
SeriesOklahoma leads 2–0 · Oklahoma won the last meeting, 24–13 · 2025
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
MICH win
49% One-score game
41% Cover MICH −1.5
44%
49% One-score game
41% Cover MICH −1.5
44%
What's driving the model
Home-field edge MICH
Market lean MICH
Model projection OU
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
Oklahoma @ Michigan
Your sims:Sims: MICH 0, OU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelOU 51%MarketOU 51%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $88,313 traded · as of Sep 1, 9:36 PM ETInformation only
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADMICH −1.5OU +1.5
TOTALOver 46.5Under 46.5
MONEYLINEMICH −112OU −108
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Michigan vs Oklahoma Stats ComparisonMichigan vs Oklahoma Stats Comparison
2025 stats| MichiganMICH | OklahomaOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 27.5#69 | PPG | 26.2#79 |
| 20.4#29 | PA/G | 15.5#7 |
| 397.9#58 | YDS/G | 354.5#93 |
| 186.8#107 | PASS/G | 235.8#59 |
| 211.2#14 | RUSH/G | 118.7#113 |
| 6.2#27 | YDS/PLAY | 5.3#97 |
| 43.6%#32 | 3RD DOWN | 38.6%#83 |
| 0.20#47 | OFF PPA | 0.11#100 |
| 45.5%#32 | OFF SUCCESS | 40.4%#95 |
| 41.8%#70 | DEF SUCCESS | 30.7%#2 |
| 69.2% | RET PROD | 63.2% |
| 1.14#129 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.24#64 |
| 17.0 | SP+ | 18.8 |
| 15.9#15 | FPI | 17.8#12 |
| +2#54 | TO MARGIN | −3#86 |
| 0.11#52 | DEF PPA | -0.02#4 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Michigan StadiumLocationAnn Arbor, MI
Capacity107,601
SurfaceTurf
Opened1927
Elevation838 ft
FAN NEWS
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