Richmond @ NC State, Week 2 · 2026
GAME DAY
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Richmond opens a 30.5-point underdog. Our model gives Richmond a 2% chance.
SeriesNC State leads 14–1 · NC State won the last meeting, 23–21 · 2013
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
RICH win
2% One-score game
6% Cover NCSU −30.5
55%
2% One-score game
6% Cover NCSU −30.5
55%
What's driving the model
Home-field edge NCSU
Market lean NCSU
Model projection NCSU
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
Richmond @ NC State
Your sims:Sims: RICH 0, NCSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3NC State
Lat Virginia34–8
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelNCSU 98%MarketNCSU 97%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $172,735 traded · as of Sep 9, 6:49 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADRICH +30.5NCSU −30.5
TOTALOver 48.5Under 48.5
MONEYLINERICH +2200NCSU −8000
DraftKings · updated Sep 9, 3:01 PM ETNot gambling advice
Richmond vs NC State Stats ComparisonRichmond vs NC State Stats Comparison
| RichmondRICH | NC StateNCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 31.5 | PPG | 8 |
| 17.5 | PA/G | 34 |
| 346.5 | YDS/G | 168 |
| 230 | PASS/G | 92 |
| 116.5 | RUSH/G | 76 |
| 5.4 | YDS/PLAY | 3.3 |
| 39.3% | 3RD DOWN | 30.8% |
| 0.04 | DEF PPA | 0.27 |
| 37.7% | OFF SUCCESS | 31.4% |
| 26.8% | DEF SUCCESS | 47.9% |
| 1.38 | EXPLOSIVE | 0.53 |
| +1 | TO MARGIN | −2 |
| 0.09 | OFF PPA | -0.14 |
| – | RET PROD | 59.9% |
| – | ELO | 1506 |
| – | SP+ | -0.7 |
| – | FPI | -1.1#71 |
THE VENUE
Carter-Finley StadiumLocationRaleigh, NC
Capacity58,000
SurfaceGrass
Opened1966
Elevation384 ft
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