Sacramento State @ Fresno State, Week 2 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 2 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Sacramento State a 6% chance.
SeriesFresno State leads 5–0 · Fresno State won the last meeting, 46–30 · 2024
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) FRES
Home-field edge FRES
Model projection FRES
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Sacramento State @ Fresno State
Your sims:Sims: SAC 0, FRES 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Sacramento State
Sacramento State2026: 0–1 (0–1 MAC)
Lat Eastern Michigan28–17Sacramento State2026: 0–1 (0–1 MAC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Sacramento State vs Fresno State Stats ComparisonSAC vs Fresno State Stats Comparison
| Sacramento StateSAC | Fresno StateFRES | |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | PPG | – |
| 28 | PA/G | – |
| 268 | YDS/G | – |
| 219 | PASS/G | – |
| 49 | RUSH/G | – |
| 4.3 | YDS/PLAY | – |
| 21.4% | 3RD DOWN | – |
| −1 | TO MARGIN | – |
| -0.08 | OFF PPA | – |
| 0.06 | DEF PPA | – |
| 34.4% | OFF SUCCESS | – |
| 41.4% | DEF SUCCESS | – |
| – | RET PROD | 38.3% |
| 1.03 | EXPLOSIVE | – |
| -23.4 | SP+ | -1.4 |
| -10.4#111 | FPI | -2.5#77 |
THE VENUE
Valley Children's StadiumLocationFresno, CA
Capacity41,031
SurfaceTurf
Opened1980
Elevation336 ft
FAN NEWS
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