South Alabama @ Arkansas State, Week 6 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 6 · ·USA radioJaguar Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives South Alabama a 33% chance.
SeriesArkansas State leads 8–6 · Arkansas State won the last meeting, 15–14 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) ARST
Home-field edge ARST
Model projection ARST
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
South Alabama @ Arkansas State
Your sims:Sims: USA 0, ARST 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3South Alabama
South Alabama2025: 4–8 (3–5 SBC)
Lat Texas State49–26Wvs Southern Miss42–35Wat UL Monroe26–14South Alabama2025: 4–8 (3–5 SBC)Arkansas State
Arkansas State2025: 7–6 (5–3 SBC)
Wvs Missouri State34–28Wat App State30–29Lvs Louisiana34–30Arkansas State2025: 7–6 (5–3 SBC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
South Alabama vs Arkansas State Stats ComparisonUSA vs ARST Stats Comparison
2025 stats| South AlabamaUSA | Arkansas StateARST | |
|---|---|---|
| 26.5#76 | PPG | 25.2#87 |
| 30.4#110 | PA/G | 27.4#84 |
| 382.2#75 | YDS/G | 383.3#74 |
| 181.1#114 | PASS/G | 259.8#32 |
| 201.2#18 | RUSH/G | 123.5#108 |
| 5.5#81 | YDS/PLAY | 5.2#104 |
| 42.6%#39 | 3RD DOWN | 39.3%#74 |
| 0.16#74 | OFF PPA | 0.09#110 |
| 0.24#120 | DEF PPA | 0.19#97 |
| 41.8%#76 | OFF SUCCESS | 41.9%#75 |
| 43.3%#94 | DEF SUCCESS | 43.6%#97 |
| 78.6% | RET PROD | 30.0% |
| 1.20#98 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.15#121 |
| +3#46 | TO MARGIN | −7#112 |
| -14.6 | SP+ | -11.6 |
| -10.5#112 | FPI | -9.2#107 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Centennial Bank StadiumLocationJonesboro, AR
Capacity30,382
SurfaceTurf
Opened1974
Elevation294 ft
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