South Dakota State @ Illinois State, Week 5 · 2026
GAME DAY
Week 5 · ·StreamingESPN+
SDST radioJackrabbit Sports Network
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives South Dakota State a 40% chance.
SeriesSouth Dakota State leads 7–6 · Illinois State won the last meeting, 35–21 · 2025
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
SDST win
40% One-score game
37%
40% One-score game
37%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SRS) ILST
Home-field edge ILST
Model projection ILST
Each game samples a margin around our projection from last season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
South Dakota St @ Illinois St
Your sims:Sims: SDST 0, ILST 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
South Dakota State vs Illinois State Stats ComparisonSDST vs ILST Stats Comparison
2026 stats| South Dakota StateSDST | Illinois StateILST | |
|---|---|---|
| 44 | PPG | 58.5 |
| 20.5 | PA/G | 5 |
| 530 | YDS/G | 248 |
| 260 | PASS/G | 128.5 |
| 270 | RUSH/G | 119.5 |
| 7.4 | YDS/PLAY | 6 |
| 46.4% | 3RD DOWN | 68.8% |
| 0.38 | OFF PPA | 0.34 |
| 0.11 | DEF PPA | 0.04 |
| 49.3% | OFF SUCCESS | 47.0% |
| 42.4% | DEF SUCCESS | 35.4% |
| 1.31 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.37 |
| +1 | TO MARGIN | +0 |
2026 season stats and 2025 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Hancock StadiumLocationNormal, IL
Capacity15,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1963
Elevation797 ft
FAN NEWS
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