Southern Miss @ Troy, Week 6 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 6 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Troy a 85% chance.
SeriesTroy leads 6–3 · Troy won the last meeting, 28–18 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) TROY
Home-field edge TROY
Model projection TROY
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Southern Miss @ Troy
Your sims:Sims: TROY 0, USM 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Southern Miss
Southern Miss2025: 7–6 (5–3 SBC)
Lvs Western Kentucky27–16Lvs Troy28–18Lat South Alabama42–35Southern Miss2025: 7–6 (5–3 SBC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Troy vs Southern Miss Stats ComparisonTroy vs USM Stats Comparison
2025 stats| TroyTROY | Southern MissUSM | |
|---|---|---|
| 23.5#95 | PPG | 28.8#58 |
| 23.9#58 | PA/G | 27.4#84 |
| 307.2#124 | YDS/G | 401.8#54 |
| 209.2#90 | PASS/G | 266#26 |
| 98#131 | RUSH/G | 135.8#93 |
| 4.6#129 | YDS/PLAY | 5.7#65 |
| 38.8%#80 | 3RD DOWN | 39.7%#70 |
| 0.08#113 | OFF PPA | 0.16#71 |
| 0.11#50 | DEF PPA | 0.12#54 |
| 37.9%#117 | OFF SUCCESS | 39.5%#107 |
| 39.6%#47 | DEF SUCCESS | 41.5%#68 |
| 35.3% | RET PROD | 90.2% |
| 1.30#40 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.33#25 |
| +0#72 | TO MARGIN | +14#4 |
| -8.0 | SP+ | -20.7 |
| -7.4#95 | FPI | -5.1#87 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)LocationTroy, AL
Capacity30,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1950
Elevation508 ft
FAN NEWS
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MORE WEEK 6 GAMES
TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
