Toledo @ Ball State, Week 5 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 5 · TBDBALL radioCardinal Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Ball State a 24% chance.
SeriesToledo leads 28–21–1 · Toledo won the last meeting, 38–9 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) TOL
Home-field edge BALL
Model projection TOL
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Toledo @ Ball State
Your sims:Sims: BALL 0, TOL 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Ball State vs Toledo Stats ComparisonBall State vs Toledo Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Ball StateBALL | ToledoTOL | |
|---|---|---|
| 15.8#132 | PPG | 30.8#37 |
| 29.8#101 | PA/G | 13.3#4 |
| 271.7#134 | YDS/G | 415.8#34 |
| 138#131 | PASS/G | 238.1#57 |
| 133.7#96 | RUSH/G | 177.7#41 |
| 4.5#133 | YDS/PLAY | 6.2#27 |
| 33.5%#119 | 3RD DOWN | 40.2%#64 |
| 32.5%#136 | OFF SUCCESS | 44.6%#43 |
| 44.7%#113 | DEF SUCCESS | 33.1%#4 |
| 5.7% | RET PROD | 66.3% |
| 1.32#29 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.21#87 |
| −3#86 | TO MARGIN | +6#27 |
| -0.00#133 | OFF PPA | 0.20#43 |
| 0.18#87 | DEF PPA | -0.08#1 |
| -25.1 | SP+ | -9.1 |
| -17.3#134 | FPI | -3.0#79 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Scheumann StadiumLocationMuncie, IN
Capacity22,500
SurfaceTurf
Opened1967
Elevation937 ft
FAN NEWS
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