Toledo @ Ball State, Week 5 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 5 · TBDTOL radioRocket Radio Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Toledo a 76% chance.
SeriesToledo leads 28–21–1 · Toledo won the last meeting, 38–9 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) TOL
Home-field edge BALL
Model projection TOL
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Toledo @ Ball State
Your sims:Sims: TOL 0, BALL 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Toledo vs Ball State Stats ComparisonToledo vs Ball State Stats Comparison
2025 stats| ToledoTOL | Ball StateBALL | |
|---|---|---|
| 30.8#37 | PPG | 15.8#132 |
| 13.3#4 | PA/G | 29.8#101 |
| 415.8#34 | YDS/G | 271.7#134 |
| 238.1#57 | PASS/G | 138#131 |
| 177.7#41 | RUSH/G | 133.7#96 |
| 6.2#27 | YDS/PLAY | 4.5#133 |
| 40.2%#64 | 3RD DOWN | 33.5%#119 |
| 44.6%#43 | OFF SUCCESS | 32.5%#136 |
| 33.1%#4 | DEF SUCCESS | 44.7%#113 |
| 66.3% | RET PROD | 5.7% |
| 1.21#87 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.32#29 |
| +6#27 | TO MARGIN | −3#86 |
| 0.20#43 | OFF PPA | -0.00#133 |
| -0.08#1 | DEF PPA | 0.18#87 |
| -9.1 | SP+ | -25.1 |
| -3.0#79 | FPI | -17.3#134 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Scheumann StadiumLocationMuncie, IN
Capacity22,500
SurfaceTurf
Opened1967
Elevation937 ft
FAN NEWS
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