Utah State @ Boise State, Week 5 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 5 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Boise State a 85% chance.
SeriesBoise State leads 25–5 · Boise State won the last meeting, 25–24 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) BOIS
Home-field edge BOIS
Model projection BOIS
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Utah State @ Boise State
Your sims:Sims: BOIS 0, USU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Utah State
Utah State2025: 6–7 (4–4 MWC)
Lvs Washington State34–21Lvs Boise State25–24Wat Fresno State28–17Utah State2025: 6–7 (4–4 MWC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Boise State vs Utah State Stats ComparisonBoise State vs Utah State Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Boise StateBOIS | Utah StateUSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 29.9#46 | PPG | 30.9#35 |
| 24.1#61 | PA/G | 28.7#90 |
| 424.3#24 | YDS/G | 409.8#40 |
| 244.9#51 | PASS/G | 246.9#48 |
| 179.4#38 | RUSH/G | 162.9#62 |
| 5.8#55 | YDS/PLAY | 6.3#24 |
| 45.8%#26 | 3RD DOWN | 34.5%#111 |
| +2#54 | TO MARGIN | +6#27 |
| 0.17#60 | OFF PPA | 0.20#41 |
| 0.10#42 | DEF PPA | 0.20#101 |
| 40.9%#86 | OFF SUCCESS | 41.1%#83 |
| 35.3%#8 | DEF SUCCESS | 42.7%#90 |
| 66.3% | RET PROD | 65.2% |
| 1.30#36 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.35#17 |
| 5.1 | SP+ | -7.9 |
| 4.0#50 | FPI | -6.7#92 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Albertsons StadiumLocationBoise, ID
Capacity36,387
SurfaceTurf
Opened1970
Elevation2,701 ft
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