Alabama State @ Troy, Week 2 · 2026
GAME DAY
Week 2 · ·StreamingESPN+
ALST radioASU / Hornets Radio Network
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Alabama State a 11% chance.
SeriesTroy leads 2–0 · Troy won the last meeting, 34–7 · 2017
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) TROY
Home-field edge TROY
Model projection TROY
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around the market total.
Alabama State @ Troy
Your sims:Sims: ALST 0, TROY 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Troy
Wvs Sam Houston24–21
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →TOTALOver 51.5Under 51.5
MONEYLINEALST +950TROY −1650
DraftKings · updated Sep 9, 9:06 PM ETNot gambling advice
Alabama State vs Troy Stats ComparisonALST vs Troy Stats Comparison
| Alabama StateALST | TroyTROY | |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | PPG | 24 |
| 8.5 | PA/G | 21 |
| 314.5 | YDS/G | 342 |
| 160 | PASS/G | 165 |
| 154.5 | RUSH/G | 177 |
| 5.5 | YDS/PLAY | 5.2 |
| 30.4% | 3RD DOWN | 40.0% |
| +2 | TO MARGIN | +1 |
| 0.22 | OFF PPA | 0.16 |
| 0.03 | DEF PPA | 0.17 |
| 39.3% | OFF SUCCESS | 33.3% |
| 32.1% | DEF SUCCESS | 47.1% |
| 1.34 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.66 |
| – | RET PROD | 35.3% |
| – | ELO | 1420 |
| – | SP+ | -11.4 |
| – | FPI | -9.0#105 |
THE VENUE
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)LocationTroy, AL
Capacity30,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1950
Elevation508 ft
FAN NEWS
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