Alabama @ Mississippi State, Week 5 · 2026
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@GAME DAY
Week 5 · TBDMSST radioBulldog Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Mississippi State a 30% chance.
SeriesAlabama leads 86–17–3 · Alabama won the last meeting, 40–17 · 2023
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) ALA
Home-field edge MSST
Model projection ALA
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Alabama @ Mississippi State
Your sims:Sims: MSST 0, ALA 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Mississippi State
Mississippi State2025: 5–8 (1–7 SEC)
Lvs Wake Forest43–29Lvs Ole Miss38–19Lat Missouri49–27Mississippi State2025: 5–8 (1–7 SEC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Mississippi State vs Alabama Stats ComparisonMSST vs Alabama Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Mississippi StateMSST | AlabamaALA | |
|---|---|---|
| 30.4#42 | PPG | 29.5#49 |
| 30.2#106 | PA/G | 19.2#20 |
| 399.2#56 | YDS/G | 367.7#84 |
| 241.4#54 | PASS/G | 263.5#29 |
| 157.8#68 | RUSH/G | 104.2#127 |
| 5.5#81 | YDS/PLAY | 5.6#74 |
| 42.7%#38 | 3RD DOWN | 41.7%#45 |
| +3#46 | TO MARGIN | +7#21 |
| 0.15#80 | OFF PPA | 0.21#37 |
| 0.20#107 | DEF PPA | 0.07#28 |
| 42.0%#73 | OFF SUCCESS | 43.3%#54 |
| 43.3%#94 | DEF SUCCESS | 37.4%#21 |
| 33.9% | RET PROD | 26.4% |
| 1.28#44 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.27#48 |
| 4.8 | SP+ | 17.6 |
| 4.1#49 | FPI | 20.1#8 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Davis Wade StadiumLocationStarkville, MS
Capacity61,337
SurfaceGrass
Opened1914
Elevation362 ft
FAN NEWS
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