UL Monroe @ Mississippi State, Week 1 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Mississippi State opens a 28.5-point favorite. Our model gives Mississippi State a 96% chance.
SeriesMississippi State leads 4–1–1 · Mississippi State won the last meeting, 24–10 · 1997
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) MSST
Home-field edge MSST
Market lean MSST
Model projection MSST
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
UL Monroe @ Mississippi State
Your sims:Sims: MSST 0, ULM 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Mississippi State
Mississippi State2025: 5–8 (1–7 SEC)
Lvs Wake Forest43–29Lvs Ole Miss38–19Lat Missouri49–27Mississippi State2025: 5–8 (1–7 SEC)UL Monroe
UL Monroe2025: 3–9 (1–7 SBC)
Lat Louisiana30–27 (OT)Lat Texas State31–14Lvs South Alabama26–14UL Monroe2025: 3–9 (1–7 SBC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADMSST −28.5ULM +28.5
TOTALOver 54.5Under 54.5
MONEYLINEMSST −5000ULM +1800
DraftKings · updated Sep 2, 12:32 AM ETNot gambling advice
Mississippi State vs UL Monroe Stats ComparisonMSST vs UL Monroe Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Mississippi StateMSST | UL MonroeULM | |
|---|---|---|
| 30.4#42 | PPG | 16.6#130 |
| 30.2#106 | PA/G | 31.9#119 |
| 399.2#56 | YDS/G | 322.2#118 |
| 241.4#54 | PASS/G | 159.6#124 |
| 157.8#68 | RUSH/G | 162.6#63 |
| 5.5#81 | YDS/PLAY | 5.3#97 |
| 42.7%#38 | 3RD DOWN | 32.7%#124 |
| 0.15#80 | OFF PPA | 0.08#115 |
| 0.20#107 | DEF PPA | 0.19#90 |
| 42.0%#73 | OFF SUCCESS | 37.0%#121 |
| 43.3%#94 | DEF SUCCESS | 40.7%#57 |
| 33.9% | RET PROD | 38.7% |
| 1.28#44 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.37#11 |
| +3#46 | TO MARGIN | −10#123 |
| 4.8 | SP+ | -28.9 |
| 4.1#49 | FPI | -19.3#138 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Davis Wade StadiumLocationStarkville, MS
Capacity61,337
SurfaceGrass
Opened1914
Elevation362 ft
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