Arkansas State @ TCU, Week 3 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 3 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives TCU a 94% chance.
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) TCU
Home-field edge TCU
Model projection TCU
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Arkansas State @ TCU
Your sims:Sims: TCU 0, ARST 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3TCU
TCU2026: 0–1 (0–0 B12)
Lvs North Carolina15–10TCU2026: 0–1 (0–0 B12)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
TCU vs Arkansas State Stats ComparisonTCU vs ARST Stats Comparison
2025 stats| TCUTCU | Arkansas StateARST | |
|---|---|---|
| 30.7#40 | PPG | 25.2#87 |
| 25.3#72 | PA/G | 27.4#84 |
| 421.8#27 | YDS/G | 383.3#74 |
| 290.1#9 | PASS/G | 259.8#32 |
| 131.8#99 | RUSH/G | 123.5#108 |
| 6.1#31 | YDS/PLAY | 5.2#104 |
| 47.4%#14 | 3RD DOWN | 39.3%#74 |
| 0.20#48 | OFF PPA | 0.09#110 |
| 0.14#59 | DEF PPA | 0.19#97 |
| 44.5%#44 | OFF SUCCESS | 41.9%#75 |
| 40.3%#51 | DEF SUCCESS | 43.6%#97 |
| 22.4% | RET PROD | 30.0% |
| 1.26#50 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.15#121 |
| +1#66 | TO MARGIN | −7#112 |
| 9.4 | SP+ | -11.6 |
| 6.4#38 | FPI | -9.2#107 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Amon G. Carter StadiumLocationFort Worth, TX
Capacity46,000
SurfaceGrass
Opened1929
Elevation608 ft
FAN NEWS
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