GAME DAY
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Drake a 68% chance.
SeriesDayton leads 11–7 · Drake won the last meeting, 14–6 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SRS) DRKE
Home-field edge DRKE
Model projection DRKE
Each game samples a margin around our projection from last season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Dayton @ Drake
Your sims:Sims: DRKE 0, DAY 0
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Dayton vs Drake Stats ComparisonDayton vs Drake Stats Comparison
2026 stats| DaytonDAY | DrakeDRKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 43 | PPG | 22.5 |
| 20 | PA/G | 41.5 |
| 437 | YDS/G | 428 |
| 186 | PASS/G | 393.5 |
| 251 | RUSH/G | 34.5 |
| 6.2 | YDS/PLAY | 5.4 |
| 27.3% | 3RD DOWN | 29.0% |
| 0.17 | OFF PPA | 0.05 |
| 0.10 | DEF PPA | 0.25 |
| 38.9% | OFF SUCCESS | 41.0% |
| 35.8% | DEF SUCCESS | 50.9% |
| 1.31 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.08 |
| +3 | TO MARGIN | −3 |
2026 season stats and 2025 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Drake StadiumLocationDes Moines, IA
Capacity14,557
SurfaceTurf
Opened1925
Elevation912 ft
FAN NEWS
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