Florida State @ Louisville, Week 6 · 2026
@#24
GAME DAY
Week 6 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Louisville a 64% chance.
SeriesFlorida State leads 17–5 · Florida State won the last meeting, 16–6 · 2023
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) LOU
Home-field edge LOU
Model projection LOU
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Florida State @ Louisville
Your sims:Sims: LOU 0, FSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Florida State
Florida State2026: 1–0 (0–0 ACC)
Wvs New Mexico State34–17Florida State2026: 1–0 (0–0 ACC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Louisville vs Florida State Stats ComparisonLouisville vs FSU Stats Comparison
2025 stats| LouisvilleLOU | Florida StateFSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 29.9#46 | PPG | 33#22 |
| 21.2#38 | PA/G | 22#43 |
| 384.6#72 | YDS/G | 472.2#6 |
| 220.6#76 | PASS/G | 253.4#40 |
| 164#61 | RUSH/G | 218.8#11 |
| 6#38 | YDS/PLAY | 6.7#13 |
| 35.3%#105 | 3RD DOWN | 50.6%#8 |
| 0.15#80 | OFF PPA | 0.30#14 |
| 0.06#20 | DEF PPA | 0.15#63 |
| 45.1%#37 | OFF SUCCESS | 47.2%#17 |
| 36.4%#15 | DEF SUCCESS | 40.5%#55 |
| 34.8% | RET PROD | 40.1% |
| 1.20#97 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.36#16 |
| 11.1 | SP+ | 9.1 |
| 9.5#27 | FPI | 9.3#28 |
| +3#46 | TO MARGIN | −5#103 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
L&N Federal Credit Union StadiumLocationLouisville, KY
Capacity60,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1998
Elevation455 ft
FAN NEWS
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TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
