Florida State @ Miami, Week 7 · 2026
@#7
GAME DAY
Week 7 · TBDFSU radioSeminole Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Florida State opens a 16.5-point underdog. Our model gives Florida State a 15% chance.
SeriesMiami leads 37–33 · Miami won the last meeting, 28–22 · 2025
What's driving the model
Home-field edge MIA
Market lean MIA
Model projection MIA
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Florida State @ Miami
Your sims:Sims: FSU 0, MIA 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Florida State
Florida State2026: 1–0 (0–0 ACC)
Wvs New Mexico State34–17Florida State2026: 1–0 (0–0 ACC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADFSU +16.5MIA −16.5
TOTALOver 53.5Under 53.5
MONEYLINEFSU +750MIA −1200
DraftKings · updated Sep 2, 12:32 AM ETNot gambling advice
Florida State vs Miami Stats ComparisonFSU vs Miami Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Florida StateFSU | MiamiMIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 33#22 | PPG | 30.9#35 |
| 22#43 | PA/G | 14.8#5 |
| 472.2#6 | YDS/G | 404.9#48 |
| 253.4#40 | PASS/G | 253.2#41 |
| 218.8#11 | RUSH/G | 151.8#77 |
| 6.7#13 | YDS/PLAY | 6.1#31 |
| 50.6%#8 | 3RD DOWN | 46.5%#18 |
| 0.30#14 | OFF PPA | 0.22#32 |
| 0.15#63 | DEF PPA | 0.03#12 |
| 47.2%#17 | OFF SUCCESS | 46.8%#20 |
| 40.5%#55 | DEF SUCCESS | 35.9%#13 |
| 40.1% | RET PROD | 36.9% |
| 1.36#16 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.16#120 |
| 9.1 | SP+ | 22.0 |
| 9.3#28 | FPI | 21.8#7 |
| −5#103 | TO MARGIN | +10#11 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Hard Rock StadiumLocationMiami Gardens, FL
Capacity64,767
SurfaceTurf
Opened1987
Elevation9 ft
FAN NEWS
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