Houston @ Texas Tech, Week 3 · 2026
#23
@#12
@#12GAME DAY
Week 3 · ·HoustonHOU0–0·B12
Texas TechTTU0–0·B12
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Houston opens a 13.5-point underdog. Our model gives Houston a 20% chance.
SeriesHouston leads 18–17–1 · Texas Tech won the last meeting, 35–11 · 2025
What's driving the model
Home-field edge TTU
Market lean TTU
Model projection TTU
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around a league-typical total.
Houston @ Texas Tech
Your sims:Sims: HOU 0, TTU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
Texas Tech82%
Houston21%
CFB Vibes ModelTTU 80%MarketTTU 82%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $9,699 traded · as of Sep 1, 8:51 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADHOU +13.5TTU −13.5
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Houston vs Texas Tech Stats ComparisonHouston vs Texas Tech Stats Comparison
2025 stats| HoustonHOU | Texas TechTTU | |
|---|---|---|
| 29.1#55 | PPG | 39.4#7 |
| 22.8#47 | PA/G | 11.8#3 |
| 395#62 | YDS/G | 461.6#10 |
| 216.4#83 | PASS/G | 277.6#17 |
| 178.6#40 | RUSH/G | 184#31 |
| 5.6#74 | YDS/PLAY | 6.3#24 |
| 40.8%#56 | 3RD DOWN | 49.3%#12 |
| +4#43 | TO MARGIN | +14#4 |
| 0.11#101 | OFF PPA | 0.25#23 |
| 41.5%#79 | OFF SUCCESS | 43.7%#50 |
| 41.2%#62 | DEF SUCCESS | 31.5%#3 |
| 81.2% | RET PROD | 53.4% |
| 1.22#78 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.32#30 |
| 7.4 | SP+ | 21.8 |
| 7.1#35 | FPI | 20.0#10 |
| 0.11#47 | DEF PPA | -0.07#2 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Jones AT&T StadiumLocationLubbock, TX
Capacity60,454
SurfaceTurf
Opened1947
Elevation3,218 ft
FAN NEWS
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