Illinois State @ North Dakota, Week 10 · 2026
GAME DAY
Week 10 · ·StreamingESPN+
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives North Dakota a 67% chance.
SeriesNorth Dakota leads 2–1 · Illinois State won the last meeting, 35–13 · 2024
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SRS) UND
Home-field edge UND
Model projection UND
Each game samples a margin around our projection from last season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Illinois State @ North Dakota
Your sims:Sims: UND 0, ILST 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
North Dakota vs Illinois State Stats ComparisonNorth Dakota vs ILST Stats Comparison
2026 stats| North DakotaUND | Illinois StateILST | |
|---|---|---|
| 52 | PPG | 58.5 |
| 23.5 | PA/G | 5 |
| 496.5 | YDS/G | 248 |
| 265 | PASS/G | 128.5 |
| 231.5 | RUSH/G | 119.5 |
| 6.8 | YDS/PLAY | 6 |
| 60.0% | 3RD DOWN | 68.8% |
| 0.33 | OFF PPA | 0.34 |
| 55.0% | OFF SUCCESS | 47.0% |
| 32.5% | DEF SUCCESS | 35.4% |
| 1.11 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.37 |
| −1 | TO MARGIN | +0 |
| -0.01 | DEF PPA | 0.04 |
2026 season stats and 2025 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Alerus CenterLocationGrand Forks, ND
Capacity12,283
SurfaceTurf
Opened2001
Elevation837 ft
FAN NEWS
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