Illinois @ Michigan State, Week 6 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 6 · TBDILL radioIllini Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Illinois a 60% chance.
SeriesMichigan State leads 27–20–2 · Illinois won the last meeting, 38–16 · 2024
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) ILL
Home-field edge MSU
Model projection ILL
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Illinois @ Michigan State
Your sims:Sims: ILL 0, MSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Illinois vs Michigan State Stats ComparisonIllinois vs MSU Stats Comparison
2025 stats| IllinoisILL | Michigan StateMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 29.4#52 | PPG | 24.6#89 |
| 23.6#56 | PA/G | 29.9#104 |
| 373.9#80 | YDS/G | 345.3#99 |
| 235.8#59 | PASS/G | 222.7#70 |
| 138.2#88 | RUSH/G | 122.7#110 |
| 5.9#46 | YDS/PLAY | 5.4#92 |
| 42.1%#43 | 3RD DOWN | 34.6%#110 |
| 0.21#39 | OFF PPA | 0.13#90 |
| 0.19#97 | DEF PPA | 0.20#101 |
| 47.5%#15 | OFF SUCCESS | 42.1%#72 |
| 45.0%#121 | DEF SUCCESS | 44.6%#110 |
| 21.1% | RET PROD | 20.9% |
| 1.16#116 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.20#98 |
| 10.4 | SP+ | 2.2 |
| 6.3#39 | FPI | 0.3#65 |
| +5#35 | TO MARGIN | −3#86 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Spartan StadiumLocationEast Lansing, MI
Capacity75,005
SurfaceGrass
Opened1923
Elevation836 ft
FAN NEWS
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