GAME DAY
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives South Dakota State an 84% chance.
SeriesSouth Dakota State leads 10–3 since 2008 · Indiana State won the last meeting, 24–12 · 2025
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
SDST win
84% One-score game
25%
84% One-score game
25%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SRS) SDST
Home-field edge SDST
Model projection SDST
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Indiana St @ South Dakota St
Your sims:Sims: SDST 0, INST 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Indiana State
Lat Illinois State17–10Lvs Youngstown State57–24Lat South Dakota44–14
South Dakota State
Wvs Murray State42–9Lat North Dakota21–10Wat Illinois State31–14
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Indiana State vs South Dakota State Stats ComparisonINST vs SDST Stats Comparison
| Indiana StateINST | South Dakota StateSDST | |
|---|---|---|
| 25.5 | PPG | 37.1 |
| 34.8 | PA/G | 15.8 |
| 380.9 | YDS/G | 472.8 |
| 265.8 | PASS/G | 209.4 |
| 115.1 | RUSH/G | 263.4 |
| 6 | YDS/PLAY | 7 |
| 37.7% | 3RD DOWN | 40.6% |
| 0.06 | OFF PPA | 0.26 |
| 35.9% | OFF SUCCESS | 47.4% |
| 44.5% | DEF SUCCESS | 36.3% |
| 1.49 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.29 |
| −7 | TO MARGIN | +6 |
| 0.22 | DEF PPA | -0.07 |
| -25.0 | SRS | -12.5 |
THE VENUE
Dana J. Dykhouse StadiumLocationBrookings, SD
Capacity19,340
SurfaceTurf
Opened2016
Elevation1,627 ft
FAN NEWS
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