GAME DAY
Week 4 · ·MVSU radioDelta Devil Sports Network
ALST radioASU / Hornets Radio Network
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Alabama State a 91% chance.
SeriesAlabama State leads 16–2 · Alabama State won the last meeting, 41–3 · 2025
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
ALST win
91% One-score game
15%
91% One-score game
15%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SRS) ALST
Home-field edge ALST
Model projection ALST
Each game samples a margin around our projection from last season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Mississippi Valley St @ Alabama St
Your sims:Sims: ALST 0, MVSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Mississippi Valley State vs Alabama State Stats ComparisonMVSU vs ALST Stats Comparison
2026 stats| Mississippi Valley StateMVSU | Alabama StateALST | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | PPG | 32 |
| 48 | PA/G | 8.5 |
| 187.5 | YDS/G | 314.5 |
| 61 | PASS/G | 160 |
| 126.5 | RUSH/G | 154.5 |
| 3.6 | YDS/PLAY | 5.5 |
| 18.5% | 3RD DOWN | 30.4% |
| 0.24 | DEF PPA | 0.03 |
| 26.0% | OFF SUCCESS | 39.3% |
| 46.2% | DEF SUCCESS | 32.1% |
| 0.72 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.34 |
| −3 | TO MARGIN | +2 |
| -0.18 | OFF PPA | 0.22 |
2026 season stats and 2025 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Hornet StadiumLocationMontgomery, AL
Capacity26,500
SurfaceTurf
Opened2012
Elevation260 ft
FAN NEWS
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