North Dakota State @ Sacramento State, Week 3 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 3 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsWIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
NDSU win
85% One-score game
23%
85% One-score game
23%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) NDSU
Home-field edge SAC
Model projection NDSU
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
North Dakota St @ Sacramento St
Your sims:Sims: NDSU 0, SAC 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3North Dakota State
North Dakota State2026: 1–0 (0–0 MWC)
Wvs Jacksonville State33–7North Dakota State2026: 1–0 (0–0 MWC)Sacramento State
Sacramento State2026: 0–1 (0–1 MAC)
Lat Eastern Michigan28–17Sacramento State2026: 0–1 (0–1 MAC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
North Dakota State vs Sacramento State Stats ComparisonNDSU vs SAC Stats Comparison
| North Dakota StateNDSU | Sacramento StateSAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | PPG | 17 |
| 7 | PA/G | 28 |
| 373 | YDS/G | 268 |
| 164 | PASS/G | 219 |
| 209 | RUSH/G | 49 |
| 5.6 | YDS/PLAY | 4.3 |
| 35.7% | 3RD DOWN | 21.4% |
| 42.0% | OFF SUCCESS | 34.4% |
| 30.9% | DEF SUCCESS | 41.4% |
| 1.10 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.03 |
| +1 | TO MARGIN | −1 |
| 0.22 | OFF PPA | -0.08 |
| -0.32 | DEF PPA | 0.06 |
| -1.8 | SP+ | -23.4 |
| -8.3#100 | FPI | -10.4#111 |
THE VENUE
Hornet StadiumLocationSacramento, CA
Capacity21,195
SurfaceTurf
Opened1969
Elevation40 ft
FAN NEWS
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