North Texas @ Texas State, Week 3 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 3 · ·TVUSA Net
UNT radioMean Green Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives North Texas a 21% chance.
SeriesTexas State leads 1–0 · Texas State won the last meeting, 30–28 · 2024
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) TXST
Home-field edge TXST
Model projection TXST
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
North Texas @ Texas State
Your sims:Sims: UNT 0, TXST 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
North Texas vs Texas State Stats ComparisonNorth Texas vs Texas State Stats Comparison
2025 stats| North TexasUNT | Texas StateTXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 45.1#1 | PPG | 36.5#12 |
| 26.5#76 | PA/G | 29#95 |
| 511.4#1 | YDS/G | 473.5#5 |
| 317.3#2 | PASS/G | 250.8#43 |
| 194.1#25 | RUSH/G | 222.7#10 |
| 7.2#3 | YDS/PLAY | 6.7#13 |
| 45.9%#24 | 3RD DOWN | 46.0%#23 |
| 0.35#2 | OFF PPA | 0.31#10 |
| 0.16#74 | DEF PPA | 0.16#71 |
| 51.6%#2 | OFF SUCCESS | 45.8%#29 |
| 42.0%#77 | DEF SUCCESS | 41.1%#61 |
| 2.5% | RET PROD | 76.0% |
| 1.31#33 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.35#18 |
| +9#14 | TO MARGIN | −5#103 |
| -11.6 | SP+ | -2.1 |
| -6.4#90 | FPI | -4.3#84 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Bobcat Stadium (TX)LocationSan Marcos, TX
Capacity30,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1981
Elevation584 ft
FAN NEWS
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