GAME DAY
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Terms & eligibility
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Montana State a 82% chance.
SeriesMontana State leads 10–6 · Montana State won the last meeting, 34–10 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SRS) MTST
Home-field edge MTST
Model projection MTST
Each game samples a margin around our projection from last season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Northern Arizona @ Montana State
Your sims:Sims: MTST 0, NAU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Northern Arizona vs Montana State Stats ComparisonNAU vs MTST Stats Comparison
2026 stats| Northern ArizonaNAU | Montana StateMTST | |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 | PPG | 52.5 |
| 31 | PA/G | 12 |
| 279 | YDS/G | 472.5 |
| 182 | PASS/G | 319.5 |
| 97 | RUSH/G | 153 |
| 4.7 | YDS/PLAY | 7.4 |
| 29.6% | 3RD DOWN | 65.0% |
| +3 | TO MARGIN | +1 |
| 33.3% | OFF SUCCESS | 58.0% |
| 52.3% | DEF SUCCESS | 33.9% |
| 1.13 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.14 |
| -0.01 | OFF PPA | 0.43 |
| 0.21 | DEF PPA | -0.11 |
2026 season stats and 2025 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Bobcat StadiumLocationBozeman, MT
Capacity17,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1973
Elevation4,946 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about Northern Arizona or Montana State?
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